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Share price with future uncertainty fan chart
Now available to order from Pellucid is the Share price over time with future uncertainty fan chart. This chart provides context around where the share price of a subject company can be expected to go in the near term and any associated uncertainty.
This variant of a share price chart supplements historical data with a forward-looking perspective about share price expectations for a subject company. The actual historical share price is shown using a line plot while the theoretical future distributions of potential share price are shown using an “uncertainty fan”. The expected price 12 months out is determined by analyst target prices, while any percentile outcome is calculated by applying historical realized volatility to an assumed lognormal distribution around this expectation. The legend on the right maps the color density inside the fan to a range of percentiles encapsulating the 90% most likely share price outcomes at any point in time.
Read more about how to use the share price fan chart at Fix The Pitch.
Marginal distributions for time series charts
Add marginal distributions of over time data to any time series chart to give greater context about the density and range of data provided in the chart.
Marginal histograms or marginal markers plot the distribution of individual time series observations and shares the same axis as the selected metric. When the metric is likely to be mean reverting or range-bound (like a valuation multiple), these visual enhancements offer a retrospective view that can serve as a proxy for the probability of future metric levels.
While the marginal histogram offers greater comparative context, marginal markers offer higher data granularity and are a good alternative if page real estate is limited as they rely on marker density to indicate where data has been.
As an example of the marginal visualization treatment, in the below Share price over time (with marginal histogram) chart showing share price, looking at the marginal histogram it can be seen that the current value is $52.61 and the proportional donuts (which can be turned on or off) add further details and display the percentage of time in recent history that the current value has been above or below the current range (89.1% and 10.9% respectively).
In the Library, you can find a version of each of these with marginal histogram selected as a default option. This can be turned off or changed to marginal markers using the marginal distribution drop down menu on the content details page.